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BlackSky Technology Inc. (BKSY)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 revenue was $22.199M, down 11% year over year and down 25% sequentially, driven by lower milestone-based professional & engineering services; imagery & analytics revenue increased to $18.0M despite variability in engineering services .
  • EPS (GAAP) was -$1.27 versus -$0.52 in Q2 2024 and -$0.42 in Q1 2025, largely due to a $24.435M loss on derivatives versus a $5.273M gain a year ago; adjusted EBITDA was -$2.817M versus +$2.145M in Q2 2024 .
  • Guidance was reduced on July 17 to revenue of $105–$130M and adjusted EBITDA breakeven to $10M (from $125–$142M and $14–$22M), citing U.S. budget volatility and timing of international contracts; capex maintained at $60–$70M .
  • Strategic catalysts: two Gen‑3 satellites operational with general commercial availability targeted for Q4, multiple international early access agreements, and a $185M convertible note refinancing strengthening liquidity to nearly $230M pro forma including warrants and other sources .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “We successfully launched and commissioned our second Gen‑3 satellite… providing very‑high resolution imagery and AI‑driven analytics… early access agreements” (CEO) .
  • International demand accelerating: backlog $356M with ~85% from international contracts; multiple early access agreements signed and a multimillion‑dollar international subscription plus ground modernization win .
  • Balance sheet strengthened: completed $185M 8‑year convertible notes; repaid higher‑cost debt; adjusted liquidity to nearly $230M including warrants, unbilled receivables, and launch financing (CFO) .

What Went Wrong

  • Revenue contracted QoQ as large milestone‑based engineering services shifted to Q1; Q2 professional & engineering revenue was $4.217M vs $12.715M in Q1 .
  • Net loss widened to -$41.239M due to the $24.435M loss on derivatives; adjusted EBITDA deteriorated to -$2.817M amid LeoStella overhead and lower engineering revenues .
  • Guidance reduced mid‑quarter reflecting U.S. government budget process uncertainty and contract timing; company flagged potential impact of continuing resolutions on new/expansion awards .

Financial Results

Headline Results vs Prior Periods

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)$30.370 $29.544 $22.199
Imagery & Software Analytical Services Revenue ($USD Millions)$17.484 $16.829 $17.982
Professional & Engineering Services Revenue ($USD Millions)$12.886 $12.715 $4.217
GAAP Net Loss per Share ($)$(1.01) $(0.42) $(1.27)
Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$29.593 $28.923 $29.892
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$7.375 $(0.617) $(2.817)
Total Cost of Sales (% of Revenue)23% 43% 28%

Segment Mix

Segment Revenue ($USD Millions)Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Imagery & Software Analytical Services$17.484 $16.829 $17.982
Professional & Engineering Services$12.886 $12.715 $4.217
Total$30.370 $29.544 $22.199

KPIs and Balance Sheet

KPIQ2 2025
Backlog ($USD Millions)$356
International Backlog (% of total)~85%
Cash, Restricted Cash, Short-term Investments ($USD Millions)$94.9
Pro Forma Cash (inclusive of recent transactions) ($USD Millions)>$170.0
Unbilled Contract Assets ($USD Millions)~$42.6; ~$33.2 expected within 12 months
Capital Expenditures ($USD Millions)$10.0 in Q2

Results vs S&P Global Consensus (Q2 2025)

MetricActualConsensusSurprise
Revenue ($USD)$22,199,000 $22,171,430*+$27,570 (beat)*
Primary EPS ($)-0.397*-0.44835*+0.05135 (beat)*
EBITDA ($USD)-$6,732,000*-$1,334,980*-$5,397,020 (miss)*

Values with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global.

Note: Company-reported adjusted EBITDA was -$2.817M, which differs from S&P’s EBITDA actual figure; the company emphasizes adjusted EBITDA as a non-GAAP performance measure .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2025$125–$142 $105–$130 Lowered
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)FY 2025$14–$22 Breakeven–$10 Lowered
Capital Expenditures ($USD Millions)FY 2025$60–$70 $60–$70 Maintained

Management cited U.S. budget process volatility and timing of certain international contracts as drivers of the revision .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024, Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
Gen‑3 deployment and performanceFirst Gen‑3 delivered imagery within 5 days; cadence of launches planned Second Gen‑3 launched; delivering imagery within 12 hours; general commercial availability targeted for Q4 Improving execution and capacity
International demand and backlogBacklog grew to ~$390M with major international wins Backlog $356M with ~85% international; multiple early access agreements and new international contracts Mix shifting strongly international
U.S. government budget and CR riskOutlook initially strong; flagged fluid geopolitical dynamics Guidance lowered due to U.S. budget uncertainties and possible continuing resolution impacts (timing of awards) Near-term headwind
Vertically integrated manufacturing (LeoStella)In-house capabilities highlighted LeoStella overhead impacted adjusted EBITDA; enables accelerated constellation and AROS initiative Strategic capability, near-term cost impact
Broad-area mapping initiative (AROS/Eros)Noted expansion plans; market gap anticipated in 2027 Accelerated AROS/Eros investment to meet anticipated supply gap; potential bundling synergies with Gen‑3 New TAM expansion

Management Commentary

  • “We remain on track to launch six Gen‑3 satellites this year and begin general commercial availability to customers in the fourth quarter” (CEO) .
  • “Backlog of $356 million, with approximately 85% from international contracts” .
  • “We successfully raised $185,000,000 in an upsized convertible note offering… used part of the proceeds to repay… secured note and commercial bank line” (CFO) .
  • “Adjusted June 30 liquidity position to nearly $230,000,000” (CFO) .
  • “At 35 centimeters [Gen‑3] is comparable to other systems that are about five times the cost… highly differentiated… frequency, access… and actionable intelligence at low latency” (CEO) .

Q&A Highlights

  • Gen‑3 ramp: General availability in Q4; incremental revenue ramp from existing backlog and new agreements as capacity scales (CEO) .
  • U.S. budget detail: Visibility incorporated into guidance; CR risk may slow new and expansion awards (CEO/CFO) .
  • Revenue mix: FY 2025 expected ~70% imagery & analytics / 30% professional & engineering (CFO) .
  • Early access programs: Smaller contracts without full SLAs; designed to transition into multi‑year operational contracts as constellation grows (CEO) .
  • AROS/Eros strategy: Potential bundling with Gen‑3 for tipping & cueing; addresses expected 2027 market supply gap for broad‑area mapping (CEO) .

Estimates Context

  • Revenue modestly beat S&P Global consensus ($22.199M actual vs $22.171M consensus); Primary EPS beat (-0.397 actual vs -0.448 consensus); EBITDA missed (-$6.732M actual vs -$1.335M consensus). Note company emphasized adjusted EBITDA (-$2.817M), which differs from S&P’s EBITDA metric . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Given the Q4 general availability and expanding international demand, sell‑side estimates may need to reflect a back‑half revenue ramp weighted toward imagery & analytics, tempered by U.S. budget timing risks .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • International-led growth with backlog concentration (~85%) reduces near-term U.S. budget risk exposure and supports H2 ramp as Gen‑3 capacity scales .
  • Near-term headwind: engineering services lumpiness and U.S. CR timing drove Q2 revenue/EBITDA softness; watch for Q4 commercialization of Gen‑3 to inflect mix and margins .
  • Strategic liquidity: $185M convertible note and warrant cash lift pro forma liquidity; positions BKSY to fund constellation scale-up and AROS/Eros investment without equity pressure .
  • Differentiation: 35cm imagery at favorable economics plus Spectra AI; management positioning versus higher-cost competitors supports pricing power and contract lengthening .
  • Guidance reset creates a lower bar; upside hinges on H2 conversions of early access to multi‑year agreements and broader Gen‑3 availability .
  • Catalysts: additional Gen‑3 launches, Q4 general availability, Luno A task orders pacing, and potential Space Force programs (e.g., Golden Dome) .
  • Monitor reconciliation between GAAP EPS (derivative volatility) and adjusted EBITDA narrative; derivative swings were the primary driver of widened GAAP net loss in Q2 .
* Values retrieved from S&P Global